U.S. Automotive Market

"Time to break out my crystal ball...or is it aluminum?"

Back to "The Bell Curve" | << Previous blog "Desperate Days or the End of the Storm?" | Next blog ""Maybe the best show ever?"" >>

With all of the doom and gloom overwhelming the financial news outlets these days--especially with regards to the globally battered automotive industry--it may be of some comfort to you that I saw this day coming. Now don't get me wrong: Nobody expected the credit crunch tidal wave that has not yet receded and finds many car makers paddling with all of their might just to keep their heads above water. That one took us all by surprise.

But the hard truth that the U.S. automotive market was prime for renewal and then reform into a different shape became evident to me the day I returned to the U.S. in 2002 after a two-year assignment in Europe. Decades of blind arrogance by the Big Three was about to be proven, with the mortal wounds made by the much improved quality of the Korean brands, the historically solid Japanese brands, and the fashion-led renaissance of the European brands.

But this is not yet another doom and gloom assessment of the U.S. auto market. In fact, it is a celebration of just how dynamic of a market we will all enjoy as consumers.

In Europe, manufacturer success is judged by a slightly different measure: market share. While having the top selling car or SUV always gives marketing and PR departments a reason to thump their chests, unless players in the Euro market have a strong collection of other vehicles in their stables, they may perish. Why? Because market share is the main game in an industry that is defined by a core of many diverse manufacturers scratching and clawing for each and every tenth of a point of share. Therefore, very few juggernaut brands exist like we've recently seen here in the U.S. with GM, Ford and Toyota.

So what does my aluminum ball tell us? That the U.S. market of the future will be even more interesting and competitive-with potentially fewer brands and models, but with an even higher degree of competitiveness. Might we see the demise of Mercury and a new focus (pun intended) on the Ford Blue Oval? What role does the GMC Division have when, in all honesty, it sells Chevys? Maybe the Chrysler brand will go away on actual cars and become just a name of the parent company that will successfully sell Dodge, Jeep, and gulp, Fiat fuel-efficient vehicles?

Success will be defined sale by sale...point by point...and only by those able to operate in an economic ebb and flow and in a profitable manner.

Posted on 2009-04-08 | Permalink | |

Back to "The Bell Curve" | << Previous blog "Desperate Days or the End of the Storm?" | Next blog ""Maybe the best show ever?"" >>