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Advice from Intellichoice: Ready to Buy - Supply and Demand

Keep in mind that a dealer can charge any price the market will bear for a car. In most cases, the target prices on our website will be enough to give the dealer a fair profit and you a fair price.

The IntelliChoice Target Price provides an estimate of a reasonable price that any given new vehicle model can be purchased for. It is a national estimate that reflects recent market conditions (supply and demand) plus a reasonable dealer markup. Specifically, each month our analysts evaluate the following data points to establish our target prices:

  • Average days supply and inventory fluctuations
  • Recent sales trends on a national and dealership level
  • A sales factor based on overall consumer demand
  • The passage of time during the current model year and expectations for new model releases
  • Comparisons of the data listed above to the prior year
  • Known pricing adjustments such as rebates and incentives

The result of this analysis is a percentage adjustment factor from dealer invoice that can be applied to individual vehicles regardless of trim or options. Our target prices never exceed MSRP as we recommend that consumers never pay more than the retail price set by manufacturers.

Ultimately, the final price of a vehicle includes many local and personal variables that cannot be accurately factored into a national estimate. Our goal is to provide consumers with a logical starting point to begin his or her negotiations with a dealer.

As noted above, if a car is in great demand and in short supply the dealer may refuse to sell the car for anything less than the retail price. Indeed, if the car is in very great demand the dealer may even insist on a markup over the MSRP. In this case, check with dealers outside your local market who may have a better supply of the model you're interested in.

By the same token, it will be easier to negotiate a better deal on overstocked models that are not selling well. Dealers who are carrying less-popular models that have been sitting on their lots for a long time are stuck with a double-edged liability. Not only are they losing profit on potential sales but they are also paying finance charges and other expenses while they keep these vehicles. They may be happy to get them off the lot at a bargain price.

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